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Monday, 02 October 2017 15:35

Housing is up 20.6% in Barcelona and 15.5% in Madrid in just one year

Real estate passenger or bubble? Although much of the real estate sector - developers, banks, experts ... - denies that in Spain are committing the errors of the past and that we are witnessing the creation of a new real estate boom, the truth is that some indicators have begun to to make jump the first alarms, especially those that make reference to the evolution of the prices of the houses. The increases are not only generalized, but in some markets they are especially striking.

This is the case of large cities, such as Madrid and Barcelona, ​​where the increases - new and used - surpass the two digits. According to data from the appraiser Tinsa, in only twelve months housing has increased by 20.6% in the city and 15.5% in the Spanish capital. During the summer months there has been a real price boom since, during the second quarter of the year, the year-on-year increase stood at 1.8% and 2.7%, respectively.

"A sustainable increase in prices is between 4% and 5%. The double digits of certain areas, where there is scarce supply or there is a tourist boom, such as Las Palmas or Ibiza, do not seem sustainable in the long run ", recently explained to El Confidencial Jesús Amador, a real estate analyst at Bankinter.

Both cities are still far from the highs of 2007 (Barcelona, ​​28.3% below, and Madrid, 37.4%), however, from the lows, prices have revalued to 44.4% and 24.9%, respectively. The 'contagion effect' did not take long to reach other points in the Spanish geography with increases in housing also significant in just twelve months. This is the case of other capitals such as Tarragona (+ 13.4%), Vitoria (+ 10.3%), Palma de Mallorca (+ 9.3%), Pamplona %).

Palma de Mallorca, in highs of 2007

Secondly, the increase in housing prices in Palma de Mallorca is particularly striking, with an increase of 7.3% during the summer months, making it the first capital to exceed the 2007 price level, followed by Lleida (5.3%), according to Idealista data. Also noteworthy were advances in Malaga (5.2%), Girona (4.9%) and Pamplona (3.9%). Although not everything is progress; Zamora, for example, has been the province's capital punished by price declines and its owners have had to drop their second-hand expectations by 2.3%. They are followed by Teruel (-2%), Soria and Cuenca (-1.8% in both cases).

The upward push of prices is palpable in the main districts and districts of Barcelona and Madrid, with double-digit increases. Ciutat Vella and Sants-Monjuïc are the most expensive districts in the last year, with increases of 28.5% and 26%, respectively. The upward trend is spread throughout the city, to the point that in seven of the ten districts that make up the city the average price has increased by more than 15% in the last year. Only one, Les Corts, costs less than 10%. In addition to the two districts mentioned above, Sant Martí (+ 19.5%) and Sant Andreu (+ 18.1%) are the ones that have increased their average value in the interannual rate.

Like in Barcelona, in Madrid the most central districts are the ones that register a greater increase of prices. Salamanca (+ 17.1%), Retiro (+ 16.5%) and Centro (+ 15.1%) lead the increases, which have also begun to extend to more peripheral districts of the city, such as Villa de Vallecas + 13.9%) or Usera (+ 12.2%).

Barcelona distances itself as the most expensive city

This bullish price hike has led Barcelona, ​​for example, to widen its price gap with respect to San Sebastián and reach 3,184 euros per square meter, compared to 2,997 euros for the Basque capital, which remains above Madrid ( 2,488 euros) and Bilbao (2,204 euros). In terms of prices, the most expensive district remains the Barcelona Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, with 4,308 euros per square meter. The district of Salamanca, in Madrid, has reduced distances this quarter and reaches 4,215 euros.

"The market is still characterized by a recovery at different speeds, with a general positive trend driven by good prospects for economic growth and with the cities of Barcelona and Madrid as the main drivers of recovery. In recent months we are seeing that other major capitals, such as Valencia and Seville, are setting the positive evolution of prices, while Zaragoza is somewhat delayed, "says Jorge Ripoll, director of the Tinsa Research Department.

If we focus exclusively on the second-hand market, sellers have significantly improved their sales expectations. Overall, the average increase in Spain was 2.3% compared to the previous quarter and 3.7% in the last twelve months, according to the latest idealist data. Although all communities recorded higher prices at the end of the summer than in the spring, the increase in the Balearic Islands, where owner expectations grew by 7.6% in just three months, is particularly noteworthy. They are followed by Catalonia (3.4%), Madrid (2.7%) and Murcia (2.4%). On the other hand, the lowest increases have been registered in Galicia and Asturias, with shy rebounds of 0.1% and barely 0.5% in Cantabria and Castilla y León, according to the latest Idealista price index. Taking into account the annual variation, the increase is 3.7%.

"The real estate market, both for sale and for rent, moves by expectations. The fall in the unemployment rate and the economic improvement are directly related to the rise of the prices of the sector. Optimism has returned to the market and prices are rising all over the country. However, as we have been warning for more than a year, normalization is occurring at two speeds, and while there are municipalities such as Palma that set maximum prices, in other locations still fall, "says Fernando Encinar, head of studies at Idealista.

This expert says that "the forecast for the next few months is continuist with the current moment. 2017 will be closed with more closed sale operations than in the previous year and an increase in the mortgage concession. It is also expected that new building visas will grow, because there are large areas and urban areas with very limited or non-existent 'stock'. Although the trend in prices keeps rising, for Encinar "nothing bodes a new housing bubble. We are still far from the levels reached in 2007 and financial institutions are now more cautious in facilitating credit. "

Ripoll, for its part, recalls that the situation is stabilizing in most markets, as up to 13 Spanish capitals show an average price lower than the third quarter of 2016. "The number of cities in this situation has been reduced to the previous quarter, as well as the intensity of the declines, which is generally moderating, "he says.

To give us an idea, there are still many autonomous communities with prices far removed from the highs of the boom, such as La Rioja, where the average value is 56.1% lower than that of 10 years ago, followed by Castilla- La Mancha (-53.7%) and Aragon (-49.8%). The regions where the average value has been the most during the crisis are the Balearic Islands (-28.4%), Galicia (-32%) and Extremadura (-32.2%).

Digital Newspaper El Confidencial