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Thursday, 17 March 2016 11:37

What if Spain leave the euro zone?

The government has put the turbo in the process of transformation of the country. In his first hundred days, he has undertaken three essential reforms applauded by Brussels and Berlin: the law of budgetary stability, financial reform and labor market reform.

It has also developed the Budget sterner state of democracy, with a cut of 27,300 million euros, superior even to that applied by the intervened countries. Just to earn the respect of their European partners and investors. And yet some and others have failed to react worse.

So far, the markets have placed us on the border of dangerous countries, almost level with Greece. The feeling, as recognized sources close to the executive, is that our European partners have abandoned us to our fate, more concerned with price stability in Germany. Thus, the hard sacrifices that have been launched not work at all; at the end of our country you will have to go, willy-nilly, to suffer the humiliation of the intervention of the troika, something that the government of Rajoy flatly opposes.

Political sources close to Moncloa consider the lack of support by the ECB -suavizada yesterday, yes, by the entity, which reopened the door to purchasing Spanish- debt could force the government of Rajoy to take a radical decision: get Spain out of the euro. But what if our country to abandon the single currency?

DIFFERENT VIEWS

All experts consulted by the Economist consider it a "traumatic" option, which would mean the death of the euro. Although there are nuances. Freemarket president, Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quiros, believes that competitiveness would win. While acknowledging that would produce a "strong cyclical capital flight, with additional problems for our financial system," also it believes that the Bank of Spain, to recover monetary policy, could inject money.

To Bernaldo de Quiros, the key would be in maintaining macroeconomic orthodoxy combined with market liberalization, a mixture that would attract investments.

However, there is a less friendly face on an abandonment of the single currency. Victor Garcia Romero, professor of IEB, warns that a divorce of the common currency would be an "automatic default". "The currency that Spain adopt a around 25-30% and depreciate our debt is denominated in euros, so a 20% encarecería" he explains. At this point also affects UCM professor Fernando Méndez Ibisate, because although the devaluation "would allow us to pay our debts, as a commitment euros, would pay more expensive."

In terms of competitiveness it would not be the panacea. Professor Garcia Romero admits that the external balance would be more positive, but warns that Spain is not an exporting country like Germany, which would not be enough. At this point differs Ibisate, who admits that Spain would be more competitive to be cheaper, but points out: would be "temporary".

CAPITAL FLIGHT

Fernando Fernandez, a professor at IE Business School, no nuances. In his opinion, leaving the euro "is not an option" but would be "condemned to a catastrophe." To begin with, would shrink 25% GDP, a "flight capital wild" would occur. And to contain such output, we should restrict access to deposits, ie a playpen. The same says Professor García Romero. And it is that our introduction of the euro, he says, would be accompanied by a flight of capital in search of stronger currencies. How to avoid it? "With a corralito" sentence. Ruben Manso, of Mansolivar & IAX, clarifies that capital flight would occur "before our departure from the euro" and added a fact: "There is no one deck that possibility."

Without forgetting the "rupture of relations within the Union". "It's become a pariah for about 25 years," warns Fernando Fernandez. So the abandonment of the single currency "is not an alternative," but whether we impose it as if we decided to "suicide".

Fernando Fernandez for Spain leaving the euro would mean the breakup of the single currency, because it also expelled to Italy. Thus, "contagiaríamos France and Germany," he predicts. Professor Méndez Ibisate this scenario does not contemplate leaving the euro. "It would be a small disaster," he says. And it is that "certainly, we would have to impoverish much more." Since IG Markets, Daniel Pingarrón not forget that the fragmentation of the euro generate more unemployment and encarecería our energy bill, because we are dependent on this matter.

Fernando P. Mendez, a member of the Editorial Board of the Economist, acknowledges that there would be more inflation, but it makes a reflection: "Between unemployment and inflation is better inflation".

PREVIOUS SCENARIOS

For IESE Professor José Pin Arboledas, leaving the euro "would be a disaster for the European project". "It is not thinkable" sentence. Manso said unable to "imagine such a situation" The solution? Ask Draghi to be able to sustain the markets. "The ECB has to keep the stability of the euro," recalls Pin Arboledas.

In the same vein Bernaldo de Quiros, who believes it is necessary for the ECB to act as lender of last resort and regrets that German "irrationality" will be opposing the monetary authority takes place, something "unsustainable" is expressed. However, Ibisate warns that "liquidity injections by the ECB are momentary solutions, not structural."

Fernando P. Mendez for our leaders have an obligation to "analyze all possible scenarios" and the output of the euro is one of them.

Before coming to raise the possibility of leaving the monetary project, experts talk about other options, such as suspension of payments or intervention. Although for President of Freemarket, intervention is unacceptable in political and economic terms.

In addition, Bernaldo de Quiros talks about the disastrous experiences of previous interventions, "Hunden the economy and are succeeded by new interventions," he explains. Nor should we forget that if you intervene to Spain "convey the idea that it does not matter that the government do the right or wrong". Teachers García Romero and Mendez Ibisate believe that markets would calm them with more reforms. For the former, the PGE "are not sufficiently restrictive" view of the market reaction. "We must avoid debt continue to grow and reduce public spending", in addition to other measures such as "touch the VAT".

Ibisate affects another point: the Andalusian elections. Its outcome doubts that the state will embridar communities. "The polls suggest investors is not clear that we will change our structure."

Digital Newspaper El Economista